My estimated timeline

from Mat Redsell

Below is the graph of the end of growth published in the 1970's and it looks very realistic today. Note industrial output due to lack of resources.

The future losses for us humans

Some of the major issues we are facing is:

1)We have no energy source that is non polluting

2)the devastating storms and droughts due to climate change caused by fossil fuel emissions

3)Old age which reduces our physical abilities

4)Food scarcity as droughts and overuse of chemicals degrade farm soils

5) Profitability of business will fall drastically and those who feel wealthy with investmentswill be rendered in poverty. This will also cause unemployment.

6)People distrusting science and not understanding the issues.

7)soil degradation in our farm lands by not using cover crops, rotations and studying the soils all year.

8)Life will get very difficult to feed ourselves as there are just too many humans on this earth.

These issues will affect the following:

Loss of drinkable water: 2031

Most rivers lakes and streams are polluted and not suitable for drinking. This will be a great problem in about10 years as employees may be not paid to keep the system going due to loss of municipal tax revenues. There may also not be enough energy to man the pumps and filters.

We need to make sure that we have good water from our well in the valley. The pump needs to be regularly serviced so it does not freeze and we need an extra pump in case of problems. We may not have enough electricity to provide for the heater so we will need a wood fired heater.

Loss of fossil fuels:2030

Fossil fuels will decline as there are less areas of new sources for it. It seems that people are not able to afford what it costs to produce fossil fuels nor understand the pollution involved. Gasoline will be he first to become very expensive and deter many from driving a car and getting our consumer items from far away places..

Luckily I have developed the sunflower for our diesel generators and the oil presses. This is a short term solution that does not really remove our reliance on fossil fuel derived energy or similar fuels that still pollute the atmosphere.. We have diesel cars that run on sunflower oil so store delivery is not a problem for the near future. Deliveries to local places by bicycle is an idea worth investing in.

We may not be able to afford or obtain gasoline for the swather, gas pump in the valley, Dorothees car ,the gas lawnmower. We still have the tractor sickle mower and the horse drawn sickle mower as well as all the machinery to produce crops and gardens by horse power.

We will have the use of tractors using sunflower oil for about 10 years. The limit will be batteries and lubrication oils. Without batteries we will not be able to start the engines.

Loss of our physical abilities:2026

I doubt that we want to move to an apartment nor an assisted living in about 2025 to 2030. I wonder just what will be available for us.

If however we could share the farm with someone then this may not be a problem. Finding the right person is the problem and we are working on it.

loss of farm chemicals: 2031

With the less amount of energy available and the increasing cost the chemicals we use in toxic farming will disappear and become very expensive. It is not easy to rebuild the soils in a short time. Seed saving will become common, cover crops are necessary and using only half of the fields for crops will be the norm to build soil biology so farm income will drop drastically.

If we want to survive we need to feed the soil by putting on as much compost and residue as we can. We need to learn how to do a good weed free compost for the gardens. Use cover crops while we can afford seeds and save some of our own. We need to be working on producing more compost.

Loss of food crops from farms: 2035

There are many difficulties with farming. At present there are very few who want to work on a farm. It is hard work 7 days a week but if you have a garden you have the best of food and the work keeps you healthy. Add in a few chickens, fruit and berry bushes and life is wonderful. With the continuing degradation of our farmlands through the use of synthetic chemicals most farming will no longer be possible. Food will b e scarce and theft may be an issue.

We need to continue working on our soils and finding new ways to produce food in a less physically demanding way. We must make compost and experiment with compost as a mulch. Using the crimped rye for planting in may also help the soils and help prevent weeds

loss of electronics:2038

Computers are in everything today. The exception is my old style diesels without electronics that run quite successful on sunflower oil. The technical skill required, the energy required and expertise may falter as the internet and computers lack an energy source. Paper and pencil will have a comeback.

We should decide at some time to abandon the computers if our upgrades do not work on the older computers. Hopefully some will be still working to help with the field planning but we should move to paper and pencil.

Loss of manufactured goods. 2040

Parts used for repairing machinery will get scarce as energy decreases. I am trying to make sure I have necessary parts for critical machinery or at least have backups. Having three oil presses is good. I have noticed that many hardware items are missing on the store shelves.

Luckily we have a complete machine shop and welding shop so we can produce almost anything. The lack of welding gas may be a problem. We need to get the 3 cylinder diesel working so we have electricity to drive the machine and wood working shop.

Loss of internet 2034

Already for us in the rural community the internet is not very consistent. The increasing use of the internet for email, ads, news, person notes is increasingly overloading the system. The internet is frequently not working well in our farm area. Most companies and governments use the internet for any communication which clog the system .

The internet is most useful for information and it will be missed but we should record what we learn and know and have it printed in binders for reference. We need to have more hard copies of things we do.

Loss of airplanes: 2035

The damage done to our atmosphere by Jets can no longer be tolerated by governments so this will probably be one of the first things to go. There is also the cost of fuel to consider.

Certainly the governments will prioritize stopping air travel by raising taxes of fuel and costs of airports. Flying will not be an acceptable form for transportation and it will be discouraged by the costs.

Since I no longer fly this should not affect us immediately. This will affect parts and supplies in industry.

Loss of electricity:2045

Keeping the lights on is going to be more of a problem all the time. Most utilities are at capacity and it will not take much to have most of them go down. Regular outages will become common place as it is already happening in many countries.

Luckily we have planned this well as we have solar power, diesel generators that use sunflower oil and do not have a lot of heavy use appliances but our batteries will only last for about 20 years. The fork lifts should be good for about 15 years but after that we will have to use human and horse power.

Loss of horses: 2025.

We need to breed Ginger or we will not have more horses. I feel it is well worth our while keeping horses for doing the many chores here for as long as we can. We should breed Jessie the cow too.

Loss of health care: 2040

Hospitals use a lot of energy, medicines, disposable things etc. Getting rid of the healthcare waste is going to be a major difficulty and with the loss of energy there will not be much done at our hospitals that rely so much on electricity. Hospitals are already over run by covid patients and the staff is difficult to keep.

Keeping healthy is very important for us by growing all of our own food and getting the exercise necessary to keep the gardens going.

Loss of cell phones: 2035

Without the internet and computers cell phones will no longer be of use. I suspect land lines will around for some time yet.

Loss of government:2040

As things deteriorate there will be a lot less government and local war lords may take over. This is kinda of scary but I suspect a reality we need to think about. I fear a number of right wing Christians will take over our area and we will need to follow their rules.

Loss of garbage pickup. 2030

This is going to be a problem when there is no more garbage pickup due to falling municipal revenue. People will start using the rural roads for disposal just like mexico. Municipalities will not function unless they can collect taxes. This will be a problem when unemployment increases. Most packaging is superfluous and will probably be addressed by governments in the near future. We will get back to bottle returns.

We need to restrict our intake of garbage and figure a better way to dispose of our own garbage. We will be using more glass jars.

Things needed for our farming , oil pressing and flour milling in the near future.

Priorities:

1)compost

2)seed saving -rye, oats, spelt and garden veggies

3) Farm help

4)we may need a wood splitter. We need to retire Dorothee our wood splitter.

We need to slow the business of oil and flour and move more in the direction of veggies and working s a community. It is no longer necessary to pursue money but to pursue quality of life with good food and excercise.

We should slow the business about 2024 and until then we need to spend as much as we can on the following:

Farm fields need to be done with regenerative practices so that more carbon gets in the soil to help water retention.

More gardens needed to feed people. We need to emphasize gardens that produce vegetables using compost as a mulch. We need to produce the compost. We need to find a better way to do this. We have a lot of crop residue and cleanings from the seed cleaning.

Use 5 tons of compost each year on any field we produce a crop, do a soil analysis and use a lot of cover crops. We may get a problem here to get mushroom compost in a few years. So more reliance on cover crops which can also be a problem if the seeds are not available. Rye will be around for a long time which is edible and provides good mulch and discourages weeds.

Seeds need to be saved to help adapt to our local climates. Still working on getting a good sunflowers. Even after about 4 years they are not very consistent. Using the purchased seeds is very unreliable as getting them to Canada is a problem and may not be available in a few years

Horses need to be breed for local farm energy

Wood lots need to be cared for to be there for wood heating.

More perennials need to be planted.

More people need to get together locally for working together, building shelter, working on projects.

If we experience a severe drought we need to have more carbon in the soil which as far as I know can only be done by green plants.

To keep weeds in check we need to clip them often ith the horse drawn sickle mower and use a lot of mulch as in no till gardens.

Thoughts:

How do we move away from being a consumer to operating without the need for purchasing things like machines. For example horses do not require motor oil or fossil fuels or filters but it is a slower process and often I use a tractor to keep on time with the crops.